Iran, IMAX, Mexico
Searching for the truth amid leaks, disinformation, and excitable traders.
Quotient at a Glance
Quotient is a forecasting platform that helps investors anticipate how global events will impact financial markets, starting with prediction markets.
Q, our AI superforecaster, leads a team of research agents to answer two questions behind every prediction market: what should the odds be, and why do the outcomes matter?
It forms questions critical to understanding the market, searches credible sources for answers, and develops forecasts grounded in superforecasting and intelligence analysis best practices.
So far Q has forecasted 551 world events and corporate earnings markets, reviewing dozens of unique sources per market.
While other prediction market intelligence platforms search for alpha by chasing breaking news first, or reading tea leaves in ambiguous and easily manipulated signals like plane transponders, Q is designed to resist disinformation and rhetoric.
It weighs sourced evidence and structured reasoning over narrative. That matters right now, because the media coverage of critical events, such as tensions between the U.S. and Iran, is rife with shoddy reporting. OSINT X accounts have misattributed quotes. Reporters rely on unnamed or poorly placed sources. Much of the analysis reflects a basic lack of understanding of military logistics. Q cuts through that.
Q’s assessments are calibrated by 200+ humans who review signals relevant to each market and assess whether those signals will move the price. We incentivize those users by sharing revenue with top performers.
Q’s judgment is reflected in the average spread between its forecasts and market odds: roughly 7%. Incidentally, this mirrors the maker/taker spread on geopolitics, the most mispriced category of prediction markets and our current focus.
This newsletter covers Q’s predictions to help our readers get familiar with Q and find opportunities to profit from mispriced markets.
Recent wins
Q has a 4-0 record on closed markets, earning a 16.4% return.
Its most impressive win was the U.S. strike on Somalia by February 21 market, where it forecasted a strike within the resolution window at 97% confidence while the market sat at 74%, a 23 point spread.
New bets
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30.
While the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho” drove a brief rally in this market, Q was skeptical.
Q noted that the operation, in which the U.S. provided intelligence support while Mexico carried out the raid, demonstrated that ground operations were unnecessary.
Moreover, the care taken to frame the operation as Mexico-led suggested the U.S. would be unlikely to acknowledge a ground operation even if one occurred. Q held a −25 percentage point spread versus the Polymarket odds at the time of the forecast.
The market has been converging towards Q’s view, earning Q 15.9% ROI on the position so far
Iran
Iran is where Q’s portfolio takes the most contrarian stance against the market.
Q holds 26 positions across Iran markets. Six on the yes side, twenty on the no side. The short version: short term bearish on a U.S. strike, short term relatively bullish on an Israeli strike, short term bearish on a deal, long term bullish on a deal, medium term bearish on a strike.
Yes side
No side
The emergent outlook? The U.S. and Iran will move towards a deal, which suits the interests of the U.S., its Arab allies, and Europe more than Israel. This gives Israel an incentive to act as a spoiler and strike, resulting in some follow-up U.S. action, a period of escalation, and then a deal coming together at the end of the year after the regime has had time to sort out what comes post-Khamenei. A succession question they had wanted to delay but that this situation is forcing.
Our read ?
A lot of the recent market movement on Iran has been driven by leaks, unnamed sources, and OSINT speculation around carrier movements and strike planning. Much of this reflects a deliberate pressure campaign by actors trying to push Trump, who prefers a deal but hasn't committed to one. We think the market is overweighting this noise.
Our assessment is that a prolonged military campaign would be costly and reduce readiness for a potential China contingency, which is the higher priority for the Pentagon and the intelligence community. Most of the national security establishment and the broader public are against a strike. Trump has boxed himself in rhetorically but needs an off-ramp that saves face. Military readiness for China is the most credible one available.
The NYT’s characterization of Caine complicated this by undermining the credibility of the U.S. deterrent, which prompted Trump to reassert that the decision is his, not the leakers’. That reads less as escalation and more as resetting leverage ahead of negotiations.
Coming up
The Iran February 28 markets resolve this week. Several earnings markets are also closing soon. We will cover the results and what they tell us about Q’s calibration.
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Intriguing
Nice rundown and so many positions to watch out for even just for iran
I’d maybe try to highlight a couple most interesting ones / most divergent from the market etc